There are still some timing issues regarding the forecast confidence (with the action more than 48 hours out), but confidence is increasing with regard to the upcoming Sunday/Monday frontal passage.

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After a series of earthquakes in northwest Louisiana triggered by Thursday’s magnitude 4.9 in Red River Parish, the U.S. Geological Survey spent time this week installing new equipment to assist in detecting earthquakes. Among those on the team was Cynthia Ebinger with the Tulane University School of Science and Engineering, who says this is standard operating procedure.

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During the week ending in early March 2026, Louisiana experienced very dry and unusually warm conditions. A February 27 cold front brought the only rainfall, with most areas receiving less than 0.20 inches and many locations reporting no rain. Temperatures stayed well above normal, reaching 85°F at Leesville and Baton Rouge Metropolitan Airport. The March 5 update from the U.S. Drought Monitor showed worsening drought conditions across more than three-quarters of the state, with increased fire danger and multiple burn bans in place. Despite the heat and humidity occasionally producing dense morning fog in southern and central areas, the week saw no severe weather watches, warnings, or reports.

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Action has already begun today in NW Louisiana, where the NWS has issued a number of Tornado and Severe T-Storm Warnings this morning.

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The SPC has again issued a lower-end severe threat ("SLIGHT Risk" ... 2-out-of-5 on the SPC threat scale) for active/severe storms, mainly from a Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning time frame.  While localized damaging winds will be the primary threat, all modes of severe weather -- damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail -- are on the table.

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A rash of earthquakes in and near Red River Parish over the past 24 months, with the strongest inland LA earthquake on record occurring this morning.

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A nice dose of rain is on the way for most of Louisiana, though there will be a wide spread in totals across the state. We did see some scattered showers, and a few storms on Wednesday, and after a mostly dry Thursday, I think things will start to get active toward the weekend. 

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LOSC preliminary assessment indicates that the 2025-26 winter (Dec 1 thru Feb 28) was a “warm” and “dry” one across Louisiana, fitting the climatic patterns expected for an ENSO/La Niña phase winter.

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It was a “quiet” 7-day run for Louisiana, with no severe weather Watches or Warnings issued during the period. However, dry and windy conditions prompted three of the four local NWS offices to post multiple Red Flag Warnings, extending over the southern parishes between Feb 22-24. 

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La Nina has done a number on Louisiana drought conditions. In the last 30 days, we've seen around 20-50% of the climatological average amount of rain. A large part of the state is also running a significant precipitation deficit over the last year. This has put parts of the state into the extreme drought category, and it explains all the wildfires and burn bans. 

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December marks the 7th consecutive month with below-average rainfall for Louisiana. However, monthly rain totals demonstrated a substantial gradient across the state, averaging under 2.00” for the northern 1/3rd of the state but running near-normal to above normal (4.00” to 6.00”+) across much of southern Louisiana.

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What shapes up to be the most significant tornado outbreak for Louisiana in more than a year produced at least 19 confirmed touchdowns (NWS preliminary reports) between the evening of Feb 14 into the early morning of Feb 15. 

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 A major ice and sleet storm on 24-25 Jan 2026 crippled much of the northern half of the state and brought I-20 to a standstill in places. For a number of parishes, freezing rain and sleet accumulations were as substantial as those which occurred in 2021 and 1973 according to locals. 

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