The Farmer's Forecast: Breaking Down the Drought and the Rainfall Outlook

By Nick Mikulas

Cenla Weather

Rain has been a tough commodity statewide, with nothing in the last week, and most areas seeing less than half of our average over the last 30 days. That has brought some parts of Louisiana below normal for the last year and we’d been running a surplus for some time. That’s why parts of Louisiana are now in a severe drought, with 5% in that category, and 43% in moderate drought. There is some hope, though I tend to think models are a bit overdone on their current forecasts for rain. I’ll explain. 

This is a La Niña year. La Niña typically means warmer and drier than normal. We’ve certainly checked those boxes. This is due to the jet stream staying further north, and the Gulf ridge holding strong, keeping us warm and dry. Models have been constantly trying to break this down, with little luck. It appears we are about to see some change in that pattern, but it will still be a battle. I think this will lead to some rain over the next week, with 1-3 inches likely north of I-10, and less than an inch south of there. That’s a general forecast, but it seems reasonable given the fact that we will see some light rains Friday into Saturday, and another round Monday into Tuesday. After that, it looks like a nice cold front moves through on Wednesday, which will dry us out, and cool things down to more seasonal levels. 

One wrinkle in our La Niña pattern is the sudden stratospheric warming event that’s been making headlines lately. This is something that happens every couple of years, and it tends to disrupt the polar vortex, sending bouts of cold air to the south. South from the North Pole could mean we get the brunt, or Europe, or Asia, but it’s something to monitor as we head into December. This would cause the jet stream to buckle southward, and possibly bring us some needed rain in a La Niña year where we need a little extra boost to get things going. It could even mean a wintry threat at some point, but that’s way down the road, and not showing up in models yet. It’s just a general idea that things are likely going to change as we get into December!