By Faith Parum, Ph.D. and Daniel Munch
American Farm Bureau Federation
Crop farmers continue to face elevated production costs, lower commodity prices and tight margins – with no relief on the horizon. AFBF analysis projects 2027 will mark a sixth year of negative returns over total costs for most major row crops. Specialty crop farmers are experiencing similar financial strain, facing expected below-breakeven prices and acreage reductions across major fruit, vegetable and tree nut sectors in 2026, even as limited public data make the full scale of losses difficult to measure. At the same time, fertilizer and fuel prices remain volatile, with the Iran conflict adding additional pressure to those markets.