Does El Niño mean another 'quiet' Hurricane Season for the Bayou State?

By Jay Grymes

Louisiana State Climatologist

El Niño is expected to develop during this year’s hurricane season, and while El Niño years typically produce fewer storms across the Atlantic and generally lower the risk for Louisiana, it does not eliminate the threat of tropical weather.

True:  El Niño appears to be a near certainty for developing during this hurricane season.

True: El Niño hurricane seasons are associated with a reduction in total storm numbers for the Atlantic Basin as a whole  ... and yes, a reduced threat for Louisiana.

False: The tropics are not a threat for Louisiana when El Niño is 'in play.'

False:  The tropical threat for Louisiana is delayed if El Niño becomes active early in the season.

False:  'Cooler-than-normal' waters in the Main Development Region early in the season means no tropical threats for the Gulf region.