The Farmer's Forecast -- The Rain Train Is Pulling In

By Nick Mikulas

Louisiana Farm Bureau News/Cenla Weather

Big rains are on the way for pretty much all of Louisiana. This rain will be heavy, and a long duration event. It starts up later today for most, and I don’t see a clear end to this in the next ten days. No, it won’t rain for 240 hours straight. That said, I don’t expect a dry stretch for any 24 hour period in the next ten days.

So what’s going on? Why have we switched from not being able to buy a drop of rain to not being able to turn the faucet off? First off, La Niña is over. We’ve transitioned into a neutral phase, and should see El Niño emerge shortly. That helps weaken the big ridge of high pressure that’s kept us so dry over the last several months. On a smaller scale, the subtropical jet stream is setting up overhead, and will shoot numerous disturbances this way. These disturbances will interact with deep moisture and instability that will provide wave after wave of rain. Over the next 7 days, I expect widespread 3-7 inch totals. Over the next 2 weeks, I expect 5-10 inches of rain for all but extreme southeast Louisiana and think that some areas will see even more. It won’t fall all at once, but we will go from drought to flood in many areas. 

One small bit of good news is that I don’t see a widespread severe threat. I think there will be some isolated severe weather, but the main threat will be for waves of heavy rain for the next couple weeks. Beyond this, it looks like a fairly typical summer across the area. El Niño is good for squashing hurricanes, though that’s just a general idea. I can’t give an all clear for the season. I’ll be watching it all, and doing my best to keep you ahead of whatever the weather throws at us!