The Farmer's Forecast: Will It Snow? (Probably Not, But Let’s Talk About It)
Nick Mikulas
We've chipped a little of the severe drought away, but rain is still very much needed across a large part of Louisiana. My main concern is that we don't want to be dry when things start to warm up. 90 degree days, and dry ground aren't a good thing. I do have some short term hope.
First off, let's get the elephant in the room out of the way. Will it snow? I lean toward no for most, but areas of southeast Louisiana at least have some chance for some flakes on Saturday night. I don't want to get too cute on nailing anything down since I lean toward no snow, or very little snow for most. High resolution models will start to capture this potential in greater detail by Friday morning, and that should give us our final answer on if it will or won't. I'm going with a 5% chance for flakes up in Central Louisiana, with slightly higher chances in Southeast Louisiana. Make sure to check local forecasts to see if there's been any major changes on Friday.
Beyond this brush with winter, it looks like dry conditions until the middle of next week. By around Wednesday, a coastal low should develop, and bring a moderate rain to most of the state. As of now, I think a general 1/2 to 2 inches will fall, and it'll be a chilly, steady rain. Just what the doctor ordered. That active pattern should hang around for several days, but details get difficult to discern after 7 days out.
I'll be watching it all, and will update as needed when things get wild and crazy. It does look like La Nina will be coming to an end by sometime in March. We then go into a neutral phase, which would be more favorable for rain down this way. So there's some long range help on the way. Have a great weekend!