Farmer’s Forecast: Tracking the Ice Threat
By Nick Mikulas
A wintry weekend is on the way for a large part of Louisiana, and winter storm watches are already in place across parts of the state. Here's how I see things happening.
First off, it looks like some rain will fall today into Thursday. This won't be heavy, and we'll be safely above freezing. I expect most areas to get 1/4 to 1 inch of rain, with isolated areas seeing up to 2 inches. After that system clears out, we transition into the wintry stuff as Arctic air sinks south, and moisture runs over the top of this very cold airmass.
Mixed precipitation is possible as soon as Friday evening up near the Arkansas border toward I-20. As the cold air seeps southward, the transition from rain to freezing rain will sink southward along with it. I should have a better handle on where that line will be in tomorrow's update, but as it stands now, I think the best chance for significant ice accumulation is along, and north of a line from DeRidder to Bunkie, and points north. Most models are further south than that, but my typically reliable European model, and it's ensembles are a bit warmer, and further north with the transition to freezing, and frozen precipitation.
One change in today's models is that it looks like this system could last well into Sunday for a large part of Louisiana, with most areas north of I-10 ending as some form of wintry mix. I expect updated winter weather watches, warnings, and advisories as this system approaches, and any travel plans for this weekend might become impossible in parts of Louisiana, and surrounding states. Make sure to stay up to speed on the latest! I'll have another update tomorrow.
Another day of model runs, and somehow, my confidence in any one solution hasn’t really wavered much. We have the warmer camp of models, and the colder one, and I’m sure you are all locked into your favorite, local meteorologist. Here are a few highlights that I’m seeing for Louisiana.
The first is that this could be a very high end ice storm, especially up near I-20. That’s where the cold air could arrive, and stay in place for both rounds of precipitation. Over an inch of ice accumulation is possible, and that would cause widespread power outages, and tree damage. Another thing of note is that this will come in two waves. The first will happen Saturday, then I think there will be a bit of a lull, then another late Saturday night through Sunday. This one should bring at least some ice accumulation as far south as the I-10 corridor, but the worst of this round will mainly stay north of a DeRidder to New Roads line. I’ll fine tune that as we get closer.
This storm could be one that parts of this state talk about for years to come. There’s a NOAA aircraft that typically does reconnaissance in hurricanes that’s investigating the upper level system on Wednesday evening. That data will get into the models overnight tonight, and should help us refine our forecast on Thursday. Stay tuned to local sources for updates in your area!
Here are some helpful links for you as this event approaches.
This is a link to the Winter Storm Severity Index. You can play around with this, and see the chance for minor to extreme impacts... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/wssi.php
This is a link to all of the winter weather products from WPC. This could be a little cumbersome, but there's a lot of information. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
This is a simple one. This is the link to The National Weather Service. This is where you can find all alerts, and a zone forecast for your specific area. https://www.weather.gov