Inside D.C.: New Farm Aid Coming; Trade Signals 'Messy'

By Carah Hart

Brownfield

The co-director of Texas A&M’s Ag and Food Policy Center says it’s going to be more challenging for the Trump administration to estimate trade damages for new farmer ad-hoc relief.

Bart Fischer says the trade conversation is constantly changing.

“The market is reacting to signals right now, China’s buying signals. There’s just still so much uncertainty that makes it, if you want to try to narrowly parse out trade effects, it’s just really difficult. It’s not. I mean, certainly you can do it. It’s just much messier.”

Fischer says that’s also likely why Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins has waited to make an announcement on trade aid.

When it comes to ad-hoc assistance, Fischer it’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when and how much. He says he’s expecting quick implementation after an announcement.

“Depending on the structure of the program they put out, you know arguably they could be able to implement it very quickly. It would not surprise me to see aid going out the door before planting.”

And when it comes to how much…

“If you were to use the model from last year’s Emergency Commodity Assistance Program, which looked at the cost of production relative to prices, if Congress were or USDA were to mimic that model, our estimates are that it would put the assistance right at about $12 billion. If you were to use that sort of all-encompassing ECAP type framework.”

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Tuesday an announcement on ad-hoc assistance for farmers is coming next week.