Concerns that the international shipping crisis will get worse for U.S. agricultural exports before it gets better are being raised again. Shipping container costs continue to rise and incentives to "dead-head" empty containers to Asia for quicker turnaround are at the root of these concerns.

Late last week, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) released a report titled, “Early Months Suggest a Bright 2021 for United States Agricultural Exports.”

The FAS report stated that, “U.S. agricultural exports in the first four months (January – April) of 2021 were a record $59 billion, exceeding the previous record set in 2014 by nearly $5 billion.

Late last week, Reuters writer Karl Plume reported that, “Chinese state-owned importers bought at least eight cargo shipments of U.S. soybeans on Friday, or at least 480,000 tonnes, the country’s largest U.S. soybean purchases in 4-1/2 months, two U.S. traders familiar with the deals said.

China’s demand for meat and grain will continue, helping to fuel higher U.S. commodity prices, says Gregg Doud, chief agricultural trade negotiator during the Trump administration and current chief economist and vice president of global situational awareness at Aimpoint Research.

Container shortages have placed a heavy strain on agricultural exporters, leaving them without access to international markets and no guarantee that their product will be delivered on time, explains House chair of the subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Salud Carbajal, D-Calif., during Tuesday’s hearing titled, “Impacts of Shipping Container Shortages, Delays, and Increased Demand on the North American Supply Chain.”

The China Phase 1 deal is helping re-establish agricultural export trade flows to the once favored destination for U.S. commodities, according to a panel who presented at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Ag Advisory Marketing meeting on June 9.

During a panel discussion offering perspectives on the pandemic, recovery and importance, David Rossen, global hedging manager – cotton at Louis Dreyfus, says the trade war and tariffs created a situation where China looked to alternative suppliers of grain from South America or the Black Sea, and U.S. export values and overall volumes plummeted.

The U.S. Justice Department intervened in a large sale of grain elevators from one company to another, citing concerns about the impact on cash grain market competition.

Zen-Noh Grain Corp, a subsidiary of the National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations of Japan, reached a $300 million deal to buy 35 operating and 13 idled grain elevators from Bunge North America last April.

On Wednesday, the USDA released its Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, a quarterly report from the Department’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and Economic Research Service (ERS). Today’s update includes highlights from the report, which was coordinated by Hui Jiang, Dylan Russell, and Adam Gerval.

The Outlook stated that, “U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2021 are projected at $164.0 billion, up $7.0 billion from the February forecast, led by increases in corn, soybeans, and livestock, poultry, and dairy products.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s quarterly agricultural trade forecast projects fiscal year 2021 U.S. farm exports at $164 billion – the highest total on record. This represents an increase of $28 billion, or 21%, from last fiscal year’s total, and a $7-billion increase from USDA’s previous FY 2021 forecast published in February. The annual export record of $152.3 billion was set in FY 2014.

Bloomberg writer Ailing Tan reported on Monday that, “China’s imports of American goods slowed in April, pulling back on the already incremental progress toward the purchase targets agreed with the U.S. in the 2020 trade deal.

Have you experienced shipping delays? Just about anyone you talk to these days has had trouble getting something. It seems lately much of the stuff we need is not available when we need it. For farmers that could be chemicals, fertilizer, even equipment parts. But it’s not just an agricultural problem. Building materials, computers, auto parts. Even Elon Musk is having trouble getting enough microchips to build his Teslas. And apparently Chick-fi-A is facing a sauce shortage? Why can we not get our stuff on time?

U.S. farm exports are projected to set a record in 2021, according to the latest information from USDA. USDA's quarterly agricultural trade forecast projects fiscal year 2021 farm exports at $164 billion, an increase of $28 billion, or 21%, from the last fiscal year and a $7 billion increase from USDA’s previous FY 2021 forecast published in February. The annual export record of $152.3 billion was set in FY 2014.