The Farmer's Forecast: It's Really Dry, Change Coming

By Nick Mikulas

Cenla Weather

The drought continues to expand and intensify. 85% of Louisiana is under at least moderate drought conditions with 25% experiencing severe drought conditions. I know that math seems weird, but the 25% of the state in the severe drought would qualify for “at least” moderate drought. So it’s really dry once again. I think that’s all about to change.

I’m sure you’ve seen the headlines regarding the Super El Niño. That just means we have a very strong El Niño underway. In fact, as of the last update, this is already the strongest El Niño since they’ve been measuring this. That started in the late 19th Century, and has become much more accurate in the last 50 years with buoy data, and satellite temperature data. No matter what, this is a significant event, and while we’ve been seeing the impacts in the tropics, it looks like we are about to start seeing the impacts locally via a strong subtropical jet stream bringing an active fall and winter.

Our first storm system will arrive late next week. Some models are arguing for a decent rain as soon as Wednesday, but I think Thursday and Friday are more likely. This will usher in phase one of our rainy, cool season. This is when we get some soil moisture back, and bring water levels up. I think this first system will bring 1-3 inches of rain. Beyond this, long range models indicate a good chance for above normal precipitation. I think we will push out of the drought over the next couple months, but am a bit concerned that we will be begging for some dry weather by later in the winter. As you all know, this isn’t an exact science, especially when we are looking out through several months. But if there’s any way to prepare for a very wet winter, I’m definitely leaning toward that happening, especially across the southern half of Louisiana. I’ll be updating things as they evolve over the next several months. One good note, it looks like cooler air will come in behind next week’s system. I see some potential for highs in the 70s in the first week of October. I’d definitely take that!