The Farmer's Forecast: Little Rain and 100º Days

By Nick Mikulas

Cenla Weather

You’ve likely heard the term “flash drought” being thrown around over the last week. We saw this in 2023, but that was a special case, and we were already seeing extreme to exceptional drought by late August. In this case, we range from abnormally dry to moderate drought, but 100 degree days, and little forecasted rain means we will likely see a quick surge upward in drought intensity and coverage. 

In the last week, we went from 56% of the state being at least abnormally dry to 88% of the state being in that category this week. We also saw the moderate drought jump from 4% to 26%. Yes I know that 88 and 26 makes up more than 100%, but the areas in the moderate drought are also counted in the abnormally dry category. The problem with summer droughts is simple. Hot air is a sponge for surface moisture. On a 100 degree afternoon with a 70 degree dew point, the atmosphere is evaporating 7.5 times more water than if we were 50 degrees with a 35 degree dew point. There are other factors at play, but in simple terms, a hot day is going to make that puddle from yesterday’s rain disappear a lot faster than on a cool day.

Looking forward, I don’t see a ton of hope. There could be some scattered storms today, and we may get another round toward next weekend, but these events don’t look like widespread soaking rains. It also looks like more afternoons near 100, which will keep evaporation rates high. One small nugget of good news is that our average temperatures will slowly start to fall by the end of August. Here in Alexandria, we go from an average high of 94 today to 92 by August 31st. Like I said, that’s a small bit of good news, but at this point, I’ll take what I can get!