The Farmer's Forecast: A Wet Pattern Continues
By Nick Mikulas
Summer heat has arrived, but the rain has been keeping it from getting too wild and crazy. It looks like more rain is on the way, and I think that will be an ongoing theme as we head into the fall and winter due to El Niño.
In the short range, after a brief lull in rain coverage, it looks like widespread rain and storms will return by Sunday into Tuesday of next week. It won’t be a continuous rain, but I think most areas will end up seeing 1-3 inches in the Sunday to Tuesday timeframe. The severe threat is low in these summer set ups, but an isolated damaging wind gust is always possible.
Beyond the short term, it’s all about El Niño. El Niño is already strong, and the impacts are being felt in the tropics. The team at Colorado State that puts out yearly tropical forecasts has dropped their total forecasted number of named storms to 9 for the year. That includes Arthur, and that would put us well below the seasonal average of 14 named storms. That’s the good news. The bad news is, a very strong El Niño fall and winter will mean that our potential for heavy rain and severe weather will increase. The fact that we are seeing the large scale atmosphere respond to El Niño already makes me think that we will have a busy October through next spring. I’ll of course be watching everything, and will update as new information arrives!