With the quarterly Grain Stocks, annual Prospective Plantings, and April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports now in the rearview mirror, market attention has shifted toward weather and outside macro events. Most notably, the energy and fertilizer markets — driven by ongoing concerns over the war in Iran — remain major question marks for corn.
The 2026 corn futures rallied into March, but the momentum stalled. The market posted two negative reversals after testing the upper $4.90 area. While a considerable flow of managed money into the long side, as seen in the Commitments of Traders (COT) report, helped propel prices higher, those gains were countered by significant farmer selling. On the charts, an ascending triangle formed that typically suggests a topside breakout. Instead, over the past two weeks, prices broke to the downside.