The Farmer's Forecast: A Storm in the Gulf

By Nick Mikulas

Cenla Weather

We now have Tropical Depression 9, and by the time you're reading this will likely have Tropical Storm Isaias. This system should gather strength over the next few days as it slowly moves eastward and then turns to the north. The initial forecast track brings this inland as a category 1 or 2 hurricane near the Alabama Mississippi border. If you have travel plans anywhere east of Louisiana and west of Panama City, you'll want to keep an eye on this.

For Louisiana, it looks like most of the wind and rain will fall to our east, though there is still some debate among the models as to exactly how things will unfold. A stronger storm will likely move along the current forecast path, and then weaken a bit on approach to landfall as it interacts with stronger wind shear. That wind shear will be from the southwest and will push a lot of the heavier rain to the northeast of the center. That said, a trough over Texas could try and pull some of that moisture toward the north, and even northwest side of this storm. If that happens, we stand a better chance to see sustained heavy rain over southeast Louisiana.

As it stands right now, I expect several inches of rain around New Orleans and to the south and east of the city. The track isn't set in stone, and this storm likely won't make landfall until Friday night or Saturday morning. That gives us a little time to watch it, but that isn't terribly far off. I'd cancel any plans along the Mississippi and Alabama Coast, and would probably do the same out to about Panama City Florida as there is plenty of uncertainty with the track. Stay tuned to local sources for the latest information on what is going to happen in your area!