The Farmer's Forecast: Rivers Cresting and More Rain
By Nick Mikulas
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will impact Louisiana over the next few days, with a nice lull, and some cooler air after the storms move out by late Saturday. Heavy rains upstream could prolong flooding conditions in some areas, but we’ll have to see how much rain falls in each river basin before we get a good handle on future flooding. As it stands now, the Mississippi River in Baton Rouge is forecast to stay above flood stage through May 11th, and through May 14th at Red River Landing. I’ll update those dates if the upstream rain causes an updated crest forecast.
With regards to the near term forecast for our area, I expect multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms, with 2-4 inches of rain likely north of a line from around Leesville to Alexandria to Ferriday. South of that line, I expect more like 1/2 to 2 inches. There will be thunderstorms, so these totals are a general guide. There will be isolated areas that see over 5 inches of rain, with the best chance for that along the I-20 corridor.
There will also be a chance for severe weather with these storms, but the chance for severe weather looks to be on the lower end of the spectrum. Of course, it only takes one misplaced severe storm to cause problems, but as I see it now, the tornado threat will be quite low. The main issue will be isolated damaging wind, and isolated large hail. The highest threat for this will be across north Louisiana.
After we hustle this rain out of the area, we will have a few days of low humidity, and low to no rain chances. That’ll get started on Sunday, and last through midweek! Here’s hoping you get the rain you need, and nothing severe!