The Farmer's Forecast: More Dry Weather for Most of Louisiana
By Nick Mikulas
It looks like more of the same is on the way for a large part of Louisiana, with one glaring exception. While 80-90% of the state will likely stay pretty dry in the next week, southeast Louisiana, including New Orleans, Houma, Thibodeaux, and Grand Isle could see some heavy rain, and breezy conditions. I know that can be a bit off putting to hear this time of year, but I don’t see any sort of significant tropical threat. I can’t rule out something weak developing very near land late this weekend, or early next week, but it appears that this would be weak, and the rain would be primarily east of this weak area of low pressure. All that said, it’s possible that areas of Jefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, Terrebonne, and Lafourche Parish could see several inches of rain through early next week. The rest of the state will likely stay pretty dry.
Speaking of dry, the drought classification areas on the Drought Monitor are expanding. Many areas of the state are now in a D0, which means abnormally dry. The D1, or moderate drought area is also expanding. The good news is that the heavy rain in the forecast is likely to impact the D1 over southeast Louisiana. Unfortunately, the areas further west won’t likely see anything significant to impact the drought conditions.
While I typically don’t do a lot of long range forecasting, it looks like a drier than normal pattern is likely through the rest of the year. The 3 month CPC outlook calls for below normal temperatures, and ensemble averages out through the next six weeks show only about 1-3 inches of rain for most, which is a good bit below what we should be getting. I don’t like long range forecast beyond giving a very general idea of things, since one decent storm system can really change the outlook on things. I’ll be watching it all, and hope you all are doing well. I’m always in awe of the fact that you all have chosen a livelihood that depends on the whim of Louisiana weather. We are all thankful that you do!