Farmer's Forecast: More Rainy Days Ahead

By Nick Mikulas

Louisiana Farm Bureau News/Cenla Weather

Heavy rain has fallen across a large part of the state, and it looks like a couple more days of heavy rain are on the way. An upper disturbance will remain parked just west of Louisiana. That keeps us in a favorable zone of southwesterly flow that brings a deep tropical airmass overhead. It’s not uncommon to see deep tropical moisture this time of year. In this case, the jet stream is also positioned in a way that brings us forcing, along with a weak surface low pressure to the west that gives us a focusing mechanism at the surface to help sustain heavy rain. All these factors combine with instability to create very efficient rain producing thunderstorms that can train over the same areas. In the last 3 days, a wide swath of 2-7 inches of rain has impacted a large part of southwest and central Louisiana, with totals generally ranging from 1/2 to 2 inches outside of that zone of heavier rain. The heaviest rain is likely going to fall over the areas that have seen the heaviest rain in the last few days. This could prompt some flooding, and will impact your ability to do work in the field for at least a few days. 

Fortunately, it looks like this pattern will change slowly as we head into the weekend, and early next week. I expect scattered storms to continue, but the incessant, heavy rains should end by the weekend. With all this rain, you’d expect some severe potential. Given the set up, heavy rain is much more likely than any sort of severe weather. I can’t rule out an isolated severe storm. Flooding is most certainly the main concern. 

Beyond this, the tropics stay quiet for the next week. There are hints at some long range potential in the tropics as we get into the first week of August. As of now, there are no specific threats to Louisiana. It’s typical for the tropics to get active as we head into August, so saying there is potential for development in the Atlantic basin isn’t breaking news. I’ll let you know if there is any sort of concern for us as things develop.