Increasing Wildfire/Forest Fire Threat for Louisiana

By Jay Grymes

State Climatologist

A strong autumn cold front has swept through delivering a real taste of fall.  

Unfortunately, that front pushed through as a 'dry' front.  Given the current state of dryness/drought across Louisiana, conditions after the frontal passage will set that stage for increased wildfire threats.

Temperatures will drop to very comfortable levels but that will come with big drop-offs in humidity.  Dew point temperatures (a measure of moisture in the air) will fall below 60⁰ statewide for most of the remainder of the week.  In addition, winds will increase markedly on the backside of the front, adding to the potential for the rapid spread of uncontrolled fires.

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor for Louisiana (effective 8 October) already shows dry-to-drought conditions for much of the state.  Ongoing preliminary assessment through 15 October (not yet released) will show an increase in the drought coverage across much of the state with drought expanding with the exception of the southeastern parishes.

Burn bans are currently in effect for 4 parishes (as of 14 October); it would prudent for additional parishes to consider issuing bans in the coming days.  The rainfall outlook for the remainder of October offers little in the way of drought relief, with the NWS Weather Prediction Center indicating virtually no rain expected in Louisiana through the next 7 days.

NWS/Lake Charles (LCH) has already issued a "Fire Weather Watch" for its warning area, which includes the southwest, south-central and many central Louisiana Parishes.  LCH highlights critical fire weather and an "extreme grassland fire danger" in their forecast comments.  I suspect additional NWS offices serving Louisiana will be highlighting wildfire threats in the coming days/weeks as drought intensifies.