USDA Forecasts US Corn Down & Soybean Production Up From '21

The Crop Production report issued Friday by USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasted corn production down from 2021 and soybean production up from last year. Corn production is down 5% from last year, forecast at 14.4 billion bushels; soybean growers are expected to increase their production 2% from 2021, forecast at 4.53 billion bushels.

Average corn yield is forecast at 175.4 bushels per acre, down 1.6 bushels from last year. NASS forecasts record-high yields in California, Iowa, Washington, and Wisconsin. Acres planted to corn, at 89.8 million, are down 4% from 2021. As of July 31, 61% of this year's corn crop was reported in good or excellent condition, 1 percentage point below the same time last year.

Area for soybean harvest is forecast at 87.2 million acres with planted area for the nation estimated at 88.0 million acres, up 1% from last year. Soybean yields are expected to average a record high 51.9 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from 2021. If realized, the forecasted yields in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Ohio, and Virginia will be record highs.

Wheat production is forecast at 1.78 billion bushels, up 8% from 2021. Growers are expected to produce 1.20 billion bushels of winter wheat this year, down less than 1% from the previous forecast and down 6% from last year. Durum wheat production is forecast at 73.6 million bushels, up 97% from 2021. All other spring wheat production is forecast at 512 million bushels, up 55% from last year. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, the U.S. all wheat yield is forecast at 47.4 bushels per acre, up 3.2 bushels from 2021.

Friday's report also included the first NASS production forecast of the season for U.S. cotton. NASS forecasts all cotton production at 12.6 million 480-pound bales, down 28% from last year. Yield is expected to average 846 pounds per harvested acre, up 27 pounds from 2021.

NASS interviewed approximately 15,350 producers across the country in preparation for this report. NASS is now gearing up to conduct its September Agricultural Survey, which will collect final acreage, yield, and production information for wheat, barley, oats, and rye as well as grains and oilseeds stored on farms across the country. That survey will take place during the first two weeks of September.

The Crop Production report is published monthly and is available online here.