Rice Outlook: U.S. Production Estimate Lowered 3.3Mln Cwt

By USDA

The U.S. 2019/20 total supply forecast was lowered 1 percent this month to 259.6 million cwt as a 2-percent reduction in the production estimate to 184.7 million cwt was more than offset a 2-percent increase in imports to a record 30.1 million cwt. On the 2019/20 use side, domestic and residual use was increased 2.0 million cwt to 133.0 million, and the export forecast was increased 0.5 million cwt to 98.0 million.

On balance, these revisions reduced the 2019/20 ending stocks forecast by 5.3 million cwt to 28.6 million. The long-grain season-average price (SAFP) forecast was increased; the California SAFP was lowered.

In the global rice market, Thailand’s 2019/20 production forecast was lowered 10 percent to 18.5 million tons based on a sharply reduced drought-impacted dry-season crop. Calendar year 2020 export forecasts for India and Pakistan were raised, while Thailand’s was lowered.

Thailand’s and U.S. trading prices rose over the past month. Vietnam’s prices changed little and remain quite competitive.

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