The Farmer's Forecast: Marginal Risk of Tropical Development, Rain Likely Starting Thursday
By Nick Mikulas
The National Hurricane Center has added an area of tropical concern for the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. Models sniffed this potential out a week or so ago, and while I think we have a good idea on the general idea of what will happen, the details remain elusive since we are still several days away from the moisture increasing across Louisiana.
Until this system moves westward along the northern Gulf Coast, I expect a decent lull in rain chances from Monday to Wednesday. Thursday is when moisture levels increase, with 120-140% of normal moisture values likely to be in place from Thursday through Monday. At the very least, that will mean we will have widespread storms in that 5 day stretch, with the weekend looking pretty darn wet. I think the heaviest rain will be along the I-10 corridor, especially east of Lafayette. That being said, there are still details to resolve, and heavy rain will be possible in all corners of the state. As of now, I’d expect a widespread 1-4 inches of rain, 3-6 inches likely in southeast Louisiana. Given the rich, tropical moisture in place, I expect higher totals in isolated areas, and I’ll update that later in the week as things come into focus.
NHC has a 20% chance that this develops into a tropical system, and models and their ensembles are in agreement with a low chance of development. Conditions are only marginally favorable for development, but waters are warm, and there will be plenty of moisture. As of now, I don’t expect this to blow up into something major, but heavy rain could become a problem. I’ll be watching closely!