The Farmer's Forecast: Mardi Gras Wind and Rain
By Nick Mikulas
A potent, fast moving storm system will move across Louisiana on Fat Tuesday. The main story with this system will be the threat for severe storms, and widespread strong, gusty wind.
This is going to be an incredibly strong storm system. Pressures are going to fall into the 978-981 millibar range over Missouri as this low pressure deepens. The all time record low pressure in Missouri in March is 977 millibars, so this is going to be very close to that level. Remember that the lower the pressure, the stronger the system. As that low pressure passes to our north, a large high pressure to the east will cause a very strong pressure gradient, or change in pressure over an area. That is what causes strong wind. The lower the pressure in a hurricane, the stronger the wind will typically be. There are other factors, but that change in pressure over a relatively small distance is the main driver for strong wind. This has prompted a fairly rare high wind watch to be issued for the southern half of Louisiana, as winds will likely exceed 40 mph over a large area, and gusts over 50 mph, even away from storms are very likely.
If that weren’t bad enough, there will be storms tapping into this strong wind energy. These won’t be prolific rain producers since they will be moving quickly across the state, but 1/2 to 1 inch of rain is likely. The big issue will be scattered 60-80 mph wind gusts in the stronger storms, and the possibility for a few tornadoes in the state. As of this writing, the Storm Prediction Center has a level 3 of 5, enhanced risk for severe weather, with a 10% or greater chance of significant severe weather across northern and central Louisiana.
If wind is going to cause you problems, now is the time to prepare. The severe threat will materialize Tuesday morning in northwest Louisiana, early afternoon through the middle of the state, and will exit southeast Louisiana around 8:00 PM. It’ll be a quick, but potentially powerful hit for parts of Louisiana. Stay tuned to a trusted, local meteorologist, and be ready to act quickly. These storms will be moving at 60+ miles per hour, so things will change quickly!