Global Phosphate Supply Constraints Expected to Keep Prices Elevated

By Jared White

Brownfield

The CEO of phosphate fertilizer producer Itafos says farmers are likely to continue to face elevated costs.

David Delaney says it’s an issue of global supply and demand.

“It’s really a lack of new global capacity, and then declining ore reserves in Florida, and then China, which only has about 30 years of reserves, has really backed away from the export market,” he says.

He tells Brownfield that domestic phosphate production is also dwindling.

“In 1990, capacity was right at 11 million tons, and today actual operating rates are around 5.3. So, it’s been cut in half.”  He says, “The ability to get permitted in any jurisdiction in the US has been difficult.”

Delaney says the long-term outlook isn’t much better.

“There’s not a lot of new capacity coming online in the next five years, and then the deficit really grows in the 2030s,” he says.

He says no new domestic phosphate production is expected in the next five years, and only two projects are anticipated globally—one in Saudi Arabia and one in Morocco.