The Farmer's Forecast: Cold Coming, But Don't Believe Everything You See on Social Media
By Nick Mikulas
Howdy folks! I had to come here to clear up some of the messaging going around social media, and regular media regarding the potential for Arctic air to move into Louisiana by late next weekend into the week after. Along with this cold, some models are showing the potential for wintry precipitation across Louisiana. Here’s the crazy thing. We just did this over the last 10 days. Models were showing wintry potential with regularity about 8-10 days before we saw rain, and Arkansas got blasted with snow. As the event approached, it became evident that the chance for significant ice and snow was just going to be a cold rain for most. As a meteorologist, I know the limitations of models and strongly dislike the fact that every run of a weather model that shows chaos becomes fodder for the social “mediarologists.” It’s bad enough for those that suffer storm anxiety, but when it comes to unnecessary stress to the agricultural community, I step in to bring the truth. Unfortunately, at this length of time from a potential event, I can’t give you specifics, but I can give you a general idea of what I’m seeing.
What I know is that a strong cold front will come through this coming weekend. It will likely bring the coldest air of the year. There are some extreme scenarios that are being shown, but most models and their ensembles show lows dropping to the 18-22 range in north Louisiana, 20-24 in central Louisiana, and 24-28 down to I-10 from around January 20-24. There could be a freeze down close to the coast in the colder runs. It looks quite cold, but as it stands now, the snowpack to our north will be reduced a bit this week, which should keep us from some crazy cold event like February of 2021 when we saw widespread single digits and low teens. That would be the wildcard. If we did end up seeing significant wintry precipitation, that could bring some of these colder solutions to fruition. Precipitation chances are all over the place as the cold air stays entrenched in the area, and I’ll update on that if things are looking promising for snow or ice. As it stands now, the chances look similar to the last event at 8-10 days out, and that turned out to be mostly rain south of I-20. I do want you to be aware of the prospect for a few hard freezes next week, but for now, that’s about all I have confidence in. I’ll let you know if that changes!