The Farmer's Forecast: Already More Rain Than 2023

By Nick Mikulas

Louisiana Farm Bureau News/Cenla Weather

Parts of Louisiana have already seen more rain than they did all of 2023. We are just a few days over 5 months into the year, or about 43% through the year, and we are either close to, or above what we saw all 12 months of last year. If you are reading this, you are aware of this, but this is a good way for me to put into perspective how dry it was last year vs. how wet it is this year. The good news is, it seems like we are going to get a few, mostly dry days going forward.

We are also a few days into June, which means I will be watching the tropics closely. I don’t see any credible Louisiana threats at this point, even though some models showing some pretty crazy scenarios across the Gulf. Remember that individual model runs, especially after about 7 days, are not very skilled in predicting details, or even the general pattern of things in many cases. That’s where meteorologists come in to take in all that data, understand the biases of models, and communicate an accurate forecast. As it stands now, one set of models is really trying to develop a system in the Gulf of Mexico in 7-10 days. Another major global model is pretty quiet in that timeframe. This fits with these models biases, and usually, the quieter of these two models wins, especially early in the season. That being said, the first system of the year, and how models forecast that system goes a long way in telling me how to interpret things going forward. For now, I’m not including any sort of tropical threat in my forecast, but I am watching everything very closely. 

This is also the time of year that you want to exercise caution in which pages you follow. Some are only in it for clicks and will post every scary looking run with disclaimers saying “this probably won’t happen.” You want to find a trusted source for your local area and follow that. Follow multiple trusted sources if you have them! But don’t panic when these fly-by-night pages drop images of a category 5 hurricane slamming into the Louisiana coast. Once there is a credible threat, I’ll be updating this newsletter often. For now, let’s enjoy a few dry days!