The Farmer's Forecast: The Return of Rain

By Nick Mikulas

Louisiana Farm Bureau News/Cenla Weather

Rain has returned to the state, which feels like mixed news, depending on who you talk to. It feels like we went from too wet, to too dry, and back to wet, with no time in the middle. It looks like more rain is on the way, as well as at least some threat for severe weather.

The pattern we are in is typical for late spring into the first days of summer. A northwesterly flow aloft is carrying disturbances that will interact with plenty of moisture and instability. This will bring daily rounds of rain to the state, though everyone won’t see rain every day. It looks like totals will range from around 1/2 inch in the marshes of Terrebonne Parish to around 3 inches close to the Arkansas border. I’ll leave it to you to decide if this is good or bad news. What is never good news is a threat for severe weather. I don’t foresee widespread severe issues, but these northwesterly flow events are notorious for producing at least a few wind gusts over 60 mph as the clusters of storms move through. Fortunately, that threat is isolated.

Looking further out, we are a few days from the official start of hurricane season. I expect a fast start, and a long season, but for now, there are no tropical threats. The Climate Prediction Center has a 20% chance of something developing around the middle of June in the Caribbean, but that’s a long way off, and there is no coherent signal in models to suggest any sort of imminent threat. It does look like a wetter than normal summer is on the way, which will mean less heat than last year. Less heat than last year shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. That’s a year no one wants a repeat of. I’ll be watching it all, and will update if I see a significant change, or if I start to see a legitimate tropical threat.